Agricultural Prediction

Introduction

As Green As It Gets (formerly “AGAIG”, now “De La Gente”/ “DLG”) is a Non-Governmental Organization founded in 2004 which is focused on the economic development of the coffee farmers that are members of the San Miguel-Escobar coffee cooperative.

By providing loans, planning, and invaluable marketing connections, the organization seeks to direct the profits from coffee sales towards the farmers, allowing them to lift themselves out of poverty and improve opportunities for their children and themselves.

An integral part of the long-term goal of maintaining the significant progress that has already been made is to ensure that economic development (in regards to coffee production) is steady and sustainable.

Agricultural outputs are difficult to predict—but using data collected in a 2012 survey on the land holdings of cooperative farmers, a computer simulation was programmed to incorporate tree cycles and estimates based on past years in order to forecast cooperative-wide yields well into the future.

Abstract

The overarching goal of this study was to investigate the long-term sustainability of the San Miguel Escobar coffee cooperative associated with the non-governmental organization As Green As It Gets. A computer simulation determined that while coffee yields are projected to increase at a positive rate over the next five years, by 2020 the cooperative would see decreases of approximately 5000 lbs per year for the following five years.

Yield levels following the first decrease would rebound to near their previous highs before the cooperative will be faced with a major challenge, dealing with an overwhelmingly high proportion of trees reaching the end of their productive life cycles in the years between 2035 and 2045. The result of these natural cycles is a decrease in yield of roughly 16,000 lbs over a period of seven years. The focus of this report will be the investigation of possible strategies aimed at mitigating the unsteady yield projections in order to ensure sustainable economic development of the coffee farmers in the cooperative.

More Information

You can see the poster (preview below) that I created to present these results1, on the talk page. If you have an interest in reading the full report, please contact me.


  1. Sorry about how wordy it is, it was my first ever poster presentation. ^
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Michael Pilosov
(applied) math nerd on a mission.

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The overarching goal of this study was to investigate the long-term sustainability of the San Miguel Escobar coffee cooperative …
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